Open Source 2010: New Year's predictions.

New Year predictions are of course a licence to speculate. What's more the normal boundaries of sanity are loosened sufficiently to make the predictions fun rather than libellous.

'Predictions' in the above context are merely extrapolations of what has occurred already, (genuine sight of the future is best left to the psychics), so it's not really that hard to do if ... you look closely at what is going on now. But, the other component of a prediction uses what I call 'white space' analysis which involves looking for gaps and silences. In other words looking for lack of information. This is important.

Google search is a great place to play this game...when you suspect the info-space has been 'whitened'. I'll take this paragraph to illustrate what I mean with an example from my own field, biochemistry of ageing:

1) Search for 'statins and muscle wastage (myopathy)' and you will find that it does occur but is rare and usually mild ...v reassuring.

2) Search for statins, cholesterol and Coenzyme Q10 biosynthesis, you will get 'scholar' returns that tell you that Q10 is blocked from synthesis along with cholesterol synthesis...v. dull academic stuff.

3)Search for low Q10 levels and myopathy (such as found in the over 80's) and you will get returns that strongly link the two...buy Q10 health supplements!

Hmm? Hang on. Concatenate the logic of the above and combine it with experience of old folk you actually know, wasting in front of your eyes (myopathy) and, and... gosh, are statins being used to cull the over 80's?...nah, surely not?... it would be on Google if it was.

Apologies for the digression, mad logic, I go too far? Maybe, maybe not as this topic is being actively researched by a respectable university as I write.

But really it's not irrelevant. Informational white space is as important as looking for snippet information. So, using both in the context of this blog, which is about Open Source stuff, we have below my top five surprising (mostly white space) and more deducible predictions of 2010.

Number 1

A British Private Computing Cloud for education and the public sector will be announced at the end July. It will be based on Microsoft Azure infrastructure and be delivered by RM PLC on embedded Linux fast-boot terminals.

This prediction is mostly constructed using white-space methodology except that 1) at the last Becta bash I went to they announced that soon we would be (in schools) be using instant-on low energy computers in class rooms and 2) the Gov just canned the NHS IT nonsense. 3) The Cabinet Office and RM have gone v quiet,
4)in July everyone in education will be thinking only of holidays... consultation in August ;)

Number 2

The netbook will die (origin of prediction is sales snippets) The original Asus Eeepc was fine and the Ubuntu remix would have made it very fine but now new incarnations of the breed show they all are just not much more than an overgrown 1990's Toshiba Libretto; not enough.

You can also be sure they are on the way out as schools have started embracing them, first the electronic white board then the netbook ho ho.! Still not convinced?... check out the latest OLPC...wow, that is flat!

Number 3

The 'Commons' will rise (origin: Glynn Moody blog: thanks for this insight). The 'Commons' as an abstraction embraces the common land, the common weald (wealth), the GPL's software and the Creative Commons. Think P2P, FOSS, File sharing, EPUB, and micro banking to get started in the software side of things.

Commoners in 2010 will assert themselves in the wake of the failure of authority in the first decade of the 21st century. Why ? because the Commoner finds at the start of 2010 that their financial system, their patent system, their planning system, their copyright system, their parliamentary system and, after Copenhagen, their global governance, to be both lacking and self serving in the extreme.

Number 4

PostgreSQL will become the de-facto database. Simple this one and its origin is the merger antics of Oracle-Sun-MySQL mega corp. How keen are you to go there now?.. or maybe you prefer MS SQL...no?...don't blame you.

Number 5

The software reselling business model will finally die...if it hasn't already. IT will be simply a service industry (if it isn't already). Origin: OGC procurement rules.

So there you have it, my top five predictions for Open Source in 2010.

Try it for yourself, what have you spotted, and of course, what haven't you heard?..

ps It's like that deadly tropical disease that has no symptoms...feeling well?...oh dear.