The Linux Insurgency

Insurgent methodology clearly fascinates master tactician Peter Mandelson who recently urged the UK Government to behave more like insurgents in order to beat the Conservative Party in the forthcoming election. Superficially, it is a mildly bizarre statement but maybe not.

General McChrsytal no less believes that the US is in real danger of never being able to beat the Talebs... unless they find the 'right strategy'. Pretty shocking statement that.

However the prospect of defeat of an incomprehensibly technically advanced superpower by an ostensibly rag-tag insurgency is not remotely new. In my short memory the Vietcong did it to the US and her allies in Vietnam and the Mujaheddin did it to the Soviets in Afghanistan.

Before that we have the then mighty British Empire getting a dusting in the 1842 defeat by the Afghans (they crop up a lot, maybe they should run some training camps?) and then kicking off the 20th century by getting a kicking from the Boer Guerillas in South Africa.

Why am I going over this ground?

The reason is that a Microsft Presentation is doing the rounds at the minute in which its vendors are instructed on how to convince people that Windows 7 is better than Linux, more of which later. Turns out that this presentation is controversial.

So, for now let's indulge the analogy that Microsft is the Superpower to Linux's Insurgency and explore what that means. No more history, but what on earth makes some Insurgents/Guerillas/FreedomFighters/Terrorists so darned good at what they do?

Or rather why can't Superpowers defeat them? A clue can be found in an unlikely place..school.

School ICT Insurgency

Many years ago when I was a college teacher I had the privilege of teaching some very bright teenage boys. I was in charge of the ICT at the time, it was in the Windows 98 era.

The boys made it their mission to gain control of the network, day in day out. It was like a mini war in which they were the insurgents and the school was the superpower. Windows 98 obliged by being amazingly insecure.

Any good teacher in this situation knows one thing... go head to head with your young protagonists and you will lose. They move faster, are more devious and cunning than you can imagine, have no scruples and never let up. In contrast you plod after them with a thousand other things to do, constraints on your actions... constantly playing catchup. Sound familiar?

All you can do is accept that you are beat and start turning as many poachers into gamekeepers as you can. Every geek reading this article will know what I am saying is true because its likely that you too were one of the 'insurgents' :)

Some less experienced teachers or those who truly believe that might would prevail, ratchet up the conflict status with the pupils increasing sanctions and so on until at the end of the war, all too frequently the computer suites were locked and made unavailable...some 'win'!

Not being able to win in a conventional sense is core to this article, and it can now be taken back into the metaphorical Windows/Linux war.

'Windows 7 is better than Linux'

Windows 7 is better than Linux. It must be true check out the vendor training slides. Go on, have a look. It's a very popular site now having received thousands of Diggs and Tweets.

Microsoft is a superpower all right. It has all of the hallmarks: oodles of money, marketing mortars of immense power, thousands of well-armed troops on the ground and of course a plodding flat-footed response time.

Windows 7 is launched nine years after MS last successful operating system (XP). Previous version of the OS (3.1/'95/'98'/2000) followed in quick succession. This is a classic sign of Superpower necrosis. These include long lead times and massive but ineffective expenditure. Just ask our National Defence Procurement team for more details. Helicopters anyone?

The presentation referred to above however is very interesting. In the Linux world it has sparked some outrage and the reason is that it takes everyday FUD into blatant lie territory. When you do this there is nowhere left to go, if you like, continuing the military metaphor it is like going nuclear.

There is no need to get heated up though. Windows 7 is 'ok', maybe up there in with Linux Mint 8 KDE 4.3 for niceness on the eye. Alright, it is faster than Vista (not difficult) and more secure (not difficult) but... more secure than Debian Lenny or faster than Puppy?

I don't think so. Move away from this trading of blows and look to the future.

Now and in the Future

The point is we are looking at a snapshot in time. Windows 7 is brand new, it's their best shot. In ten years time maybe we will get Windows 8. In contrast, remember Linux ten years ago?...(maybe you would rather not..Red Hat 5.2) in fact it changed quiet a bit last week and the month before and before that...

What then will Linux and it's Open Source siblings be in two years time? What was Android a year ago (I counted six Android SmartPhones in my dealer yesterday)? Linux and Open Source development in general is so fleet of foot, so flexible in its direction I could not say what it will be in two year's time. Microsoft? Oh yes, Windows 7 bug-fix and Service Pack 2, I think.

Summary

The metaphor embarked upon at the start of the article may be a little tasteless but it holds up well. Of course we have to respond to FUD but, like General McChrystal, unless MS find the right strategy they will inevitably lose and dodgy dealership fibs will find them out.